The EV market has been through a period of extreme volatility. When my family was looking at replacing our family car, we were considering electric options. However, at the time — 2022–2023 — there were massive dealership markups here in the U.S. and similar challenges with the availability of vehicles in Europe. At one point, automakers were forced to step in to limit the impact on consumers, with Ford going as far as threatening the supply of future vehicles for dealers that insisted on marking up their stock. And Ford was egregious; reports of base model F-150 Lightnings were priced north of USD 100,000. It’s no surprise that we opted for a plug-in hybrid.
Today, I might have made a different choice. That Ford F-150 Lightning? There’s three in stock with discounts ranging from USD 10,000 to USD 15,000 off MSRP. This year, we’ve seen Volvo walk back its commitments to all EVs, GM divest ownership in a nearly complete battery cell production facility, and other automakers including Stellantis and Ford pause production on key electric models.
This push and pull can derail innovation teams but shouldn’t; while certainly slowing EV demand — made worse by expected rollbacks on subsidies in key markets like the U.S. under the Trump administration — will result in a slowing of infrastructure build out, it doesn’t change the fundamental challenge: There are a growing number of EVs on our roads that will place an increasingly large strain on the power grid. EV growth may slow, but it’s still likely more EVs will be sold in 2025 than in 2024. Innovation teams need to be focused on building charging solutions that can satisfy user needs for access to charging without decreasing grid stability and focus their efforts on three activities:
- What you should be doing today: Battery integration at fast-charging sites. Fast-charging is today’s solution to charge-timing trauma (concern by users over charging taking too long, derailing longer trips). However, as vehicles push to 350 kW, charging just 34 cars could light the Caesars Superdome, which hosted the recent Super Bowl. Integrating storage on-site at chargers allows site owners to flatten their load consumption, charge a bank of batteries while no vehicles are charging, and then kick in to supplement grid power for fast-charging vehicles. This lowers costs for site owners that might pay demand charges, enabling potentially faster, and smaller, grid connections.
- What you should be ready for: Bidirectional charging. Many vehicles are now enabling bidirectional charging, allowing them to export power. We’ve seen opportunities to use these vehicles as part of grid services or provide backup power in the event of a grid outage. Utilities should be developing programs in conjunction with vehicle owners; customer engagement has been a pain point in early trials. While initial bidirectional schemes focused on DC power transfer, as that could leverage existing fast-charging connections in the vehicle and thermal management of DC chargers, AC-based approaches could give grid operators greater visibility into the status and availability of vehicle batteries. Piloting opportunities should be pursued in areas of high EV penetration and/or challenges with congestion on specific feeders.
- What you should be thinking about: Battery swapping. While early stage, battery swapping gives grid operators and consumers the best of both worlds: At three minutes, it’s faster than charging and can trickle charge when renewable power is available on the grid. Piloting opportunities are scarce given the lack of vehicles, but grid operators should be actively thinking about how they could integrate battery swapping into their network and monitoring for automaker announcements on swapping-capable models. We’re already seeing commercial adoption in China, as Nio has built several thousand stations but hasn’t yet broken even across its broader battery swapping business. However, outside China, traction remains minimal beyond a few pilot projects from Ample.
Infrastructure development will ultimately follow adoption trends, but even as EV sales fluctuate, their number on the road will continue to grow — placing an increasing demand on the power grid. And EVs aren’t the only factor; electrified heating and residential solar with battery storage are expanding, making it more critical than ever to manage distributed energy resources at the grid edge. Rather than relying on costly infrastructure upgrades, flexibility markets like those from Piclo or GreenSync are emerging as a way to optimize these resources. Utilities and grid operators that proactively adapt to this shifting landscape — whether through smarter charging solutions, bidirectional vehicle integration, or even battery swapping — will be better positioned to maintain grid stability while supporting the future of electrification.
