In 2024, heavy industry emitters took early steps in implementing long-term net-zero strategies, investing in new processes and materials that created new revenue and product opportunities across the industrial value chain. While the rapid advances in materials and manufacturing continue to unlock “blue sky” opportunities, several once-hyped technologies have stagnated. With 2024 coming to an end, the Lux team is reflecting back on the year and looking ahead to what is to come for the next era of industrials innovation.
With predictions for 2025 finalized, the Lux team shares a few of its favorites from each of the Lux Client Priorities for Industrials Innovation Leaders to keep an eye on in the coming year.
- Hydrogen direct reduced iron (DRI) for steelmaking will pause or avoid green hydrogen, except for the Scandinavian projects that have integrated hydrogen production. Steelmakers without access to low-cost hydropower will cancel previously announced green hydrogen DRI projects or put them on hold, citing the need for green hydrogen to be at EUR 5/kg or lower.
- Biomining startups commercialize new leaching approaches to extract copper, lithium, and nickel. Companies such as Genomines, Locus Mining, and Allonnia are promising players developing phytomining, biosurfactants, and engineered enzyme approaches, respectively. Next year, these startups will secure commercial partnerships to extract recalcitrant, low-grade ores.
- Quantum computers will achieve at least one commercially available logical qubit (error corrected) in 2025, indicating the early scaling up of quantum computers. Roadmaps and recent developments from QuEra and Atom Computing indicate that quantum computers will release commercially available logical qubits, setting the stage for early quantum value by the end of the decade.
- More integrated carbon capture and sequestration solution providers come to market, either through M&A or project development business models. CO2 capture, transportation, and sequestration need to become a more integrated and packaged solution to boost industry adoption. Corporates are already moving to make this a reality, but the next year will see an uptick in companies acquiring resources in carbon management, either through acquisition or by operating projects with external IP.
- Two-phase liquid immersion cooling will remain niche, holding less than 5% of the data center liquid cooling market. Two-phase liquid immersion cooling offers good power efficiency but faces challenges with high maintenance costs, environmental concerns, and system reliability, though two-phase coolants are more promising for direct-to-chip cooling.
- Regulatory pressure on PFASs is weakened for industrial and energy applications. After criticism from industry, EU legislators will walk back proposed broad restrictions of PFASs in industrial applications and instead focus on minimizing PFAS use and effluent. In the U.S., the Trump administration will not favor restrictions but will continue research, especially on PFAS remediation efforts in drinking water.
Navigating geopolitical uncertainty and shifting policies will remain a defining challenge for industrials innovation in 2025. Near-term efforts will prioritize resource security, reshoring manufacturing, and reshaping supply chains, while 2025 will also spotlight transformational technologies from pilot phase to large-scale demonstration. The era of peak globalization in the early 2000s has given way to a fragmented global economy. Governments are prioritizing the protection and fostering of national champions in strategic sectors over reduced trade barriers. Tariffs and other measures will be a long-term drag on global economic growth but will reshape competitive dynamics and create opportunities for companies (especially those competing domestically) to exploit.
Join the Lux team on 30 January for our webinar “Tech Innovation in 2025: Themes and Technologies to Monitor” as we examine the trends and developments across Lux’s industry verticals to highlight themes and insights that will inform your priorities and hone your decision-making in 2025.